马斯克预测：到2029年AI将比所有人类都更聪明

3月13日，马斯克在X社交媒体上再发表“疯狂”预测，他写道：“明年人工智能可能会比任何人类个体都聪明，到2029年，人工智能可能比所有人类加起来还要聪明。”下面请看相关双语报道。

A prominent futurist predicted on Joe Rogan's podcast that artificial intelligence (AI) will achieve human-level intelligence by 2029, but billionaire and tech mogul Elon Musk claims it will happen by next year.

一位著名未来学家在乔·罗根的播客中预测，到2029年人工智能(AI)将达到人类水平的智慧， 但马斯克认为，这将在明年实现。

Famed inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil made what he called a "conservative" estimate about when AI will reach human-level intelligence during an appearance on the popular podcast.

著名的发明家和未来学家雷·库兹韦尔在参加这个热门播客节目时， 就人工智能何时能达到人类水平的智慧做出了他所谓的“保守”估计。

"We're not quite there, but we will be there, and by 2029 it will match any person," he said. "People think that will happen next year or the year after."

“我们还没有达到那个水平，但我们会达到的，到2029年，人工智能将能够超过人类。”他说道。 “人们认为这会在明年或后年发生。”

Musk responded on X, claiming the timeline would be much shorter.

马斯克在X上回应称，不需要那么久。

"AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year," Musk posted on X. "By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined."

“明年人工智能可能会比任何一个人都聪明，”马斯克在X上写道。 “到2029年，人工智能可能比所有人类加起来都聪明。”

Musk has been outspoken about his concerns regarding AI and the dangers associated with it, often calling for more regulation of the powerful technology.

马斯克直言不讳地表达了他对人工智能可能造成危险的担忧， 并经常呼吁要对强大的技术进行更多的监管。

He has expressed fear that AI could lead to "civilizational destruction" if mismanaged.

他曾表示，如果管理不善，人工智能可能导致“文明毁灭”。

"Even if you say that AI doesn't have agency, well, it's very likely that people will use the AI as a tool in elections," he said in a previous interview with Fox News. "And then, you know, if AI's smart enough, are they using the tool or is the tool using them? So I think things are getting weird, and they're getting weird fast."

“即使你说人工智能没有代理权，但很有可能人们会将人工智能用作选举中的工具，” 他在此前接受福克斯新闻采访时说。 “那么，如果人工智能足够聪明，是他们在使用这个工具，还是这个工具在使用他们? 所以我觉得事情变得越来越奇怪了，而且变得很快。”

"What's happening is they're training the AI to lie. It's bad," he added. "AI is more dangerous than, say, mismanaged aircraft design or production maintenance or bad car production. In the sense that it has the potential, however small one may regard that probability, but it is non-trivial, it has the potential of civilization destruction."

“但是他们正在训练人工智能撒谎。 这很危险，“他补充道。 “人工智能比管理不当的飞机设计或生产维护或劣质汽车生产更危险。 在某种意义上，它更具有潜力，无论人们认为这种可能性多么小，但它是可能实现的， AI具有破坏文明的潜力。

重点词汇

futurist 未来学家 ; 未来主义者 ; 未来派作家 ; 未来派艺术家 ; 预测未来者 ; 未来主义的

Rogan 罗根

artificial intelligence 人工智能

mogul 大亨 ; 雪丘，雪墩，“猫跳” ; 有权势的人 ; 莫卧儿人Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克 ; 伊隆·马斯克

happen by 由…发生 ; 偶然路过，碰巧路过

next year 明年

Famed 著名的

Kurzweil 库兹韦尔 ; 库兹威尔 ; 科兹威尔

an appearance 出现 ; 露面