经济学人：如果科技能解决一切问题，人类怎么办？

In "Permutation city", a novel by Greg Egan, the character Peer, having achieved immortality within a virtual reality over which he has total control, finds himself terribly bored. So he engineers himself to have new passions. One moment he is pushing the boundaries of higher mathematics; the next he is writing operas. "He'd even been interested in the Elysians ( the afterlife), once. No longer. He preferred to think about table legs." Peer's fickleness relates to a deeper point. When technology has solved humanity's deepest problems, what is left to do?

在格雷格·伊根的小说《置换之城》中，人物皮尔在他完全控制的虚拟现实中实现了永生， 却发现自己非常无聊。 因此，他开始为自己设计新的激情。 一会儿，他在探索高等数学的边界;一会儿，他又在创作歌剧。 “皮尔曾一度对极乐世界(来世)感兴趣。 但现在已不感兴趣了。 他更喜欢思考一些琐其他的，比如桌腿。”皮尔的善变反映一个更深层次的问题： 当技术解决了人类最深层的难题后，我们还能做些什么呢?

That is one question considered in a new publication by Nick Bostrom, a philosopher at the university of Oxford, whose last book argued that humanity faced a one-in-six chance of being wiped out in the next 100 years, perhaps owing to the development of dangerous forms of artificial intelligence (AI). In Mr Bostrom's latest book, "Deep Utopia", he considers a rather different outcome. What happens if AI goes extraordinarily well? Under one scenario Mr Bostrom contemplates, the technology progresses to the point at which it can do all economically valuable work at near-zero cost. Under a yet more radical scenario, even tasks that you might think would be reserved for humans, such as parenting, can be done better by AI. This may sound more dystopian than utopian, but Mr Bostrom argues otherwise.

这是牛津大学哲学家尼克·博斯特罗姆在他的新书中探讨的一个问题， 他上一本书曾提出：由于危险类人工智能(AI)的发展，未来100年内，人类面临1/6的灭绝风险。 在博斯特罗姆的新书《深度乌托邦》中，他考虑了一个截然不同的结果。 如果AI的发展超乎想象地顺利，将会发生什么? 在博斯特罗姆先生设想的一种情况下， AI技术发展到可以近乎0成本完成所有具有经济价值工作的程度。 另一个更激进的场景是，即使是那些看似只能由人类完成的任务，比如育儿，也可以由AI更出色地完成。 这听起来可能更像是反乌托邦，而不是乌托邦，但博斯特罗姆先生的观点并非如此。

Start with the first scenario, which Mr Bostrom labels a "post-scarcity" utopia. In such a world, the need for work would be reduced. Almost a century ago John Maynard Keynes wrote an essay entitled "Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren", which predicted that 100 years into the future his wealthy descendants would need to work for only 15 hours a week. This has not quite come to pass, but working time has fallen greatly. In the rich world average weekly working hours have dropped from more than 60 in the late 19th century to fewer than 40 today. The typical American spends a third of their waking hours on leisure activities and sports. In the future, they may wish to spend their time on things beyond humanity's current conception. As Mr Bostrom writes, when aided by powerful tech, "the space of possible-for-us experiences extends far beyond those that are accessible to us with our present unoptimised brains."

首先来看博斯特罗姆称为“后稀缺”乌托邦的第一个场景。 在这样的世界里，人们对工作的需求将会减少。 大约100年前，约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯写了一篇题为《我们孙辈的经济可能性》的文章， 预测100年后，他富有的后代每周只需工作15小时。 虽然这个预测并未完全成真，但工作时间确实已经显著减少。 在发达国家，平均每周工作时间从19世纪末的60多个小时减少到今天的40个小时以下。 典型的美国人会将1/3的清醒时间花在休闲活动和体育运动上。 在未来，他们可能希望将时间花在人类目前无法想象的事情上。 正如博斯特罗姆所写，在强大的科技帮助下， “我们可能获得的体验空间远远超出了我们目前尚未优化的大脑所能触及的范围。”

Yet Mr Bostrom's label of a "post-scarcity" utopia might be slightly misleading: the economic explosion caused by superintelligence would still be limited by physical resources, most notably land. Although space exploration may hugely increase the building space available, it will not make it infinite. There are also intermediate worlds where humans develop powerful new forms of intelligence, but do not become space-faring. In such worlds, wealth may be fantastic, but lots of it could be absorbed by housing—much as is the case in rich countries today.

不过，博斯特罗姆将这种现象称为“后稀缺”乌托邦或许有些误导性： 尽管超级智能可能会带来经济爆炸式增长，但这种增长仍然会受到物理资源的限制，尤其是土地。 尽管太空探索可能会极大地扩大可供建设的空间，但这并不意味着空间是无限的。 还有一些中间世界，人类发展出了强大的新智能形式，但并未实现太空旅行。 在这样的世界中，财富可能非常可观，但其中很大一部分财富可能会被用于住房——正如当今发达国家的情况一样。

重点词汇

virtual reality 虚拟现实，拟境，虚拟时空

terribly bored 非常无聊 ; 闷得发慌

One moment 等一下 ; 稍等一下

higher mathematics 高等数学 ; 高数 ; 教学大纲

interested in 感兴趣 ; 对…关注 ; 关心 ; 尽力

No longer 不再

think about 考虑，打算 ; 考虑到 ; 关心 ; 设想，想像 ; 替……着想

what is 是什么 ; 什么是 ; 什麽

That is 即 ; 用于纠正之前说过的内容

new publication 新出版物 ; 建立发行集